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Philip Morris Special Report -- Young Smokers: Prevalence, Trends, Implications,
and Related Demograhic Trends
DOCUMENT SUBMITTED BY:
Myron E. Johnson
March 31, 1981
Attachment B (17 Charts plus Cover Sheet)
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Attachment B Cover Page
Only text: "Charts"
[click on image to enlarge to full size -- 1K]
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Chart 1
Population Trends, 1960-1990, by Age Cohort
Cohort 15-19 year-olds
Cohort 20-24 year-olds
Cohort 45-54 year-olds
[click on image to enlarge to full size -- 11K]
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Chart 2
Various Measures of Smoking, 1975-1980
Smoked in last 30 days
Smoked 1+/day in last 30 days
Smoked 10+/day in last 30 days
Smoked 20+/day in last 30 days
[click on image to enlarge to full size -- 10K]
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Chart 3
Self-Definition of Smoking Status
Current Regular or Occasional Smoker
Current Regular Smoker
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Chart 4
Various Measures of Smoking, by Gender
Smoked in last 30 days, for Males and Females
Smoked 1+/day in last 30 days, for Males and Females
Smoked 10+/day in last 30 days, for Males and Females
[click on image to enlarge to full size -- 10K]
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Chart 5
Cummulative Smoking Incidence, by Grade for Males and Females
Grades 6 through 12
[click on image to enlarge to full size -- 7K]
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Chart 6
Smoked One or More Per Day in Last 30 Days, based on Higher Educational Aspiration
No Four-Year College Plans
Plan Four Years of College
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Chart 7
Current Regular Smokers, H.S. and College
High School Seniors, No College Plans
High School Seniors, College Plans
College Freshmen
[click on image to enlarge to full size -- 9K]
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Chart 8
Smoked Cigarettes Frequently in Past Year, by Gender
College Freshman Males
College Freshman Females
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Chart 9
Various Measures of Smoking, by Ethnicity
Blacks and Whites, Smoked in last 30 days
Blacks and Whites, Smoked 1+/day in last 30 days
Blacks and Whites, Smoked 10+/day in last 30 days
[click on image to enlarge to full size -- 11K]
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Chart 10
Smoked Frequently Past Year, College Freshmen
All Institutions
Predominately Black Institutions
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Chart 11
Smoked 1+/day in Last 30 Days, by Geographical Region
Northeast
North Central
South
West
[click on image to enlarge to full size -- 9K]
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Chart 12
Smoked Frequently Past Year, College Freshmen, by Geographical Region
Northeast
North Central
South
West
[click on image to enlarge to full size -- 9K]
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Chart 13
Smoking Probabilities Five Years Hence
Definitely Not and Probably Not
Definitely Not
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Chart 14
Smoking Probabilities Five Years Hence, by Gender
Definitely Not and Probably Not, Males
Definitely Not and Probably Not, Females
Definitely Not, Males
Definitely Not, Females
[click on image to enlarge to full size -- 10K]
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Chart 15
Definitely or Probably Will Smoke Five Years Hence, by Geographical Region
Northeast
North Central
South
West
[click on image to enlarge to full size -- 9K]
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Chart 16
Perceived Disapproval of Smoking a Pack a Day
Parents
Self
Peers
[click on image to enlarge to full size -- 8K]
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Chart 17
Perceived Great Risk of Various Behaviors
4-5 Drinks Nearly Every Day
Smoke Pack or More Cigarettes Per Day
Try Heroin Once or Twice
Smoke Marihuana Regularly
[click on image to enlarge to full size -- 10K]
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| | BACKGROUND NOTE: Thanks to
Bert Hirschorn for this very important find which he aptly called the
"daddy of teen-age targeting market analysis." This document was a MN
trial exhibit. It is a report by a
PM analyst who was alarmed at decrease in teen smoking (pre-age18).
This is a "must-read," a document tobacco control advocates should all keep
close at hand when advocating for youth access measures.
Quotes from a memo introducing this document:
For over fifteen years certain demographic trends have been moving in
directions favorable to industry growth. No, one by one, these powerful
social and demographic factors are turning against us, and by 1985 all
will be operating against us.
The trends are:
1. After increasing for over a decade, the prevalence of teenage
smoking is now declining sharply.
2. After increasing for over a decade, the average daily consumption of
teenage smokers is declining.
3. After increasing 38 percent from 1967 to 1976, the absolute number
of 15-19 year olds will decline 19 percent during the 1980's, with the
period of sharpest decline beginning in 1981.
Quotes from the body of the document:
Between 1975 and 1979 the proportion of teenagers who say they
"definitely will not" be smoking five years nhence has increased
dramatically. The major reasons for the decline are the perceived
health hazards of smoking and peer pressure not to smoke.
Because of our high share of the market among the youngest smokers,
Philip Morris will suffer more than the other companies from the decline
in the number of teenage smokers.
Anne Landman
American Lung Association of Colorado, West Region Office
Grand Junction
Type of Document: Philip Morris Research Center Special Report
Title: "Young Smokers: Prevalence, Trends, Implications and Related
Demographic Trends
Author: Myron E. Johnson
Date: March 31, 1981
Site: Philip Morris Dcoument Site (http://www.pmdocs.com)
URL: http://www.pmdocs.com/getallimg.asp?DOCID=1000390803/0855 (give it
a few minutes to load)
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