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Philip Morris Special Report -- Young Smokers: Prevalence, Trends, Implications,
and Related Demograhic Trends
DOCUMENT SUBMITTED BY:
Myron E. Johnson
March 31, 1981
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Document Cover -- not enlargeable
Visible text reads, "...for over a decade, the prevalence of teenage..."
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Title Page
Philip Morris U.S.A.
Research Center
Special Report
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Introductory Memo Page One
To: Dr. Robert B. Seligman
Powerful social and demographic factors are turning against us...
The prevalence of teenage smoking is now declining sharply
The average daily consumption of teenage smokers is declining
The absolute number of 15-19 year-olds will decline...
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Introductory Memo Page Two
Industry sales will begin to decline within the next few years
To sustain growth, Philip Morris USA must accelerate the rate of increase in market share
Subsequent reports will cover the social, economic and psychographic characteristics of
teenage smokers and the demographics of other significant age groups
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Table of Contents [all items not listed]
Teenage Smoking Prevalence 1968-1974
Teenage Smoking Prevalence 1975-1980
Smoking Prevalence and Educational Aspirations
Reasons for the Decline in Teenage Smoking
Conclusions and Implications
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Executive Summary Page One
Today's teenager is tomorrow's potential regular customer
The overwhelming majority of smokers begin to smoke while still in their teens
Smoking patterns of teenagers are particularly important to Philip Morris
It is during the teenage years that the initial brand choice is made
The number of 12-18 year-olds who smoked ten or more cigarettes per day more than doubled
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Executive Summary Page Two
We will no longer be able to rely on a rapidly increasing pool of teenagers
from which to replace smokers lost through normal attrition
The decline in prevalence of teenage smoking has been sharper among boys...
Now more girls than boys smoke cigarettes
Decline in teenage smoking has been particularly pronounced among Blacks
Because our high share of the market among the youngest smokers, Philip Morris will
suffer more than the other companies from the decline in the number of teenage
smokers
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Page Three
Best date on the overall prevalence of teenage smoking comes from...
Current Regular Smokers -- ages 12-14
Current Regular Smokers -- ages 15-16
Current Regular Smokers -- ages 17-18
Current Regular Smokers -- Boys and Girls: ages 15-18
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Page Four (page was originally copied at smaller size)
Number of teenage smokers increased between 1955-1974
Increase in number of cigarettes these young smokers smoked
Increase among girls much greater than that among boys
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Page Five
"The percent of high school seniors who smoke is declining" [emphasis in original]
The decline is most pronounced among males
The decline began a year earlier among males compared to females
Females now report they smoke more cigarettes per day than do males
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Page Six
Includes Table 5: Percent of Seniors by Smoking Status
For both sexes, the modal grades of initiation of smoking has remained grade 9
Yet, "there has been an increase in the smoking incidence of seventh and eighth graders --
dramatically so in the case of the girls"
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Page Seven
Includes Table 6: School Grade in which HS Seniors First Began Smoking on a Daily Basis
Table begins with Grade 6 or below
Emphasis and discussion about "dropouts"
Dropouts roughly 30 - 40 percent more likely to smoke by the time they are 17-19 years old than
those who complete high school
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Page Eight
Smoking prevalence is inversely related to educational attainment
Smoking prevalence is therefore related to educational aspirations
Significant differences in smoking prevalence between college-bound and
non-college-bound individuals
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Page Nine
Appears there was steady decline in smoking among college freshmen from 1966 through 1979
Also, striking differences between the sexes...
While smoking initially declined for males and females, smoking then increases for females
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Page Ten
Examines relationship between smoking and educational attainment
Are HS dropouts more likely to smoke?
Are students who go to college simply late in beginning to smoke?
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Page Eleven
Among those still enrolled in school there is indeed a continued increase in smoking
Increase is much more pronounced in females
Continued increase in smoking during the first year of college
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Page Twelve
It is clear -- there is a "strong, negative relationship" between educational attainment and smoking
This relationship is stronger than in the past
Those who do smoke are beginning at earlier ages, particularly among females
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Page Thirteen
Decline in smoking prevalence of Blacks
Black decline in smoking began earlier than among Whites and is more pronounced
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Page Fourteen
Smoking prevalence is now lower among Black teenagers than among Whites
Blacks are not only less likely than Whites to smoke, but the average daily
consumption of those who smoke is lower than among Whites
Education is much more highly related to smoking among Blacks than among Whites
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Page Fifteen
Larger proportion of Blacks than Whites smoked in early 70s, but the shaper decline
in smoking among Blacks has resulted in a larger proportion of smokers among Whites
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Page Sixteen
West has by far the lowest prevalence of smoking among HS seniors
Northeast has the highest
Adults in West have higher prevalence of smoking compared to adults in other
regions -- this questions conventional wisdom that parental smoking is "best"
predictor of adolescent smoking behavior
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Page Seventeen
HS students in the northeast begin to smoke at an earlier age
Southerns were the latest to begin smoking
College freshmen follow a similar pattern
Smoking prevalence is higher in two-year colleges compared to four-year colleges
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Page Eighteen
Based on the National Institute of Education study, the best predictor of
future smoking behavior of teenagers was the respondent's own assessment of
the likelihood of his smoking in the future
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Page Nineteen
Steady decline in percent of respondents who indicate they definitely or probably
will be smoking in five years
Believe decline is attributed to series of Reader's Digest articles
on the gasses in cigarettes
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Page Twenty -- Why Teens Smoking is Declining
Peer pressure is important in influencing the young not to smoke --
"A decade and more ago it was a major reason why teenagers began to smoke."
Decline in teenage smoking is also attributable to the anti-smoking propaganda
Perceived risk of smoking one or more packs of cigarettes per day is now 20
percentage points higher than the perceived risk of smoking marijuana regularly,
and is higher than the perceived risk of trying heroin once or twice
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Page Twenty-one
Conclusions and Implications
The industry can no longer rely on an ever increasing pool of teenage smokers to
replace adult smokers lost through natural attrition
While this news is bad for the industry, it is not as bad for Philip Morris. We
have the highest share index among the youngest smokers...
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Page Twenty-two
Plans
Among other tasks, summarize the results of journal articles on psychological and behavioral
correlates of teenage cigarette smoking
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Back Cover -- not enlargeable
No visible text or information
Marked CONFIDENTIAL
Attachment A
Attachment B
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| | BACKGROUND NOTE: Thanks to
Bert Hirschorn for this very important find which he aptly called the
"daddy of teen-age targeting market analysis." This document was a MN
trial exhibit. It is a report by a
PM analyst who was alarmed at decrease in teen smoking (pre-age18).
This is a "must-read," a document tobacco control advocates should all keep
close at hand when advocating for youth access measures.
Quotes from a memo introducing this document:
For over fifteen years certain demographic trends have been moving in
directions favorable to industry growth. No, one by one, these powerful
social and demographic factors are turning against us, and by 1985 all
will be operating against us.
The trends are:
1. After increasing for over a decade, the prevalence of teenage
smoking is now declining sharply.
2. After increasing for over a decade, the average daily consumption of
teenage smokers is declining.
3. After increasing 38 percent from 1967 to 1976, the absolute number
of 15-19 year olds will decline 19 percent during the 1980's, with the
period of sharpest decline beginning in 1981.
Quotes from the body of the document:
Between 1975 and 1979 the proportion of teenagers who say they
"definitely will not" be smoking five years nhence has increased
dramatically. The major reasons for the decline are the perceived
health hazards of smoking and peer pressure not to smoke.
Because of our high share of the market among the youngest smokers,
Philip Morris will suffer more than the other companies from the decline
in the number of teenage smokers.
Anne Landman
American Lung Association of Colorado, West Region Office
Grand Junction
Type of Document: Philip Morris Research Center Special Report
Title: "Young Smokers: Prevalence, Trends, Implications and Related
Demographic Trends
Author: Myron E. Johnson
Date: March 31, 1981
Site: Philip Morris Dcoument Site (http://www.pmdocs.com)
URL: http://www.pmdocs.com/getallimg.asp?DOCID=1000390803/0855 (give it
a few minutes to load)
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